Australian researchers have developed a new statistical tool that shows promise in predicting the onset of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) with greater accuracy than existing models. The Florey Dementia Index (FDI), created by scientists at The Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health, aims to give patients more time to make crucial decisions regarding their health by forecasting the likely age of onset of dementia symptoms.
The FDI uses a patient’s age alongside their score in the Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) to generate predictions about when the disease may manifest. In a study published this month in JAMA Network Open, the index was tested using data from 3,783 participants involved in three long-term aging and dementia studies.
In assessing the FDI’s predictions against the actual age of clinical dementia diagnoses, the researchers reported “promising results.” Lead author Chenyin Chu, who developed the tool, explained that the model predicts the onset of MCI with an error margin of just 18 months, and clinical dementia with a margin of about eight months.
“To our knowledge, the FDI model is the first to accurately predict the onset of mild cognitive impairment using only a single neuropsychological test and age,” Chu said.
While the results show significant potential, the researchers caution that further external validation is necessary to ensure the model’s fairness and consistency across diverse populations and data sources. “Further evaluation in varied dementia cohorts is still required,” the team emphasized.
This breakthrough comes as dementia’s impact continues to rise in Australia. Over the past 50 years, the mortality rate from dementia has surged by 842.8%, and the disease is projected to surpass ischemic heart disease as the country’s leading cause of death, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Dr. Nicholas (Yijun) Pan, the paper’s corresponding author, highlighted the importance of early diagnosis. “We need affordable, non-invasive methods to accurately predict the age of disease onset, to enhance patient care and treatment, and allow patients to make decisions while they are still able to,” he said.
Looking ahead, the researchers hope the FDI could be used as a screening tool for people aged 60 and above who show no symptoms of dementia or Alzheimer’s disease but may be at risk. The tool’s ultimate goal is to aid in early intervention, ensuring timely diagnoses and more effective care planning for individuals affected by the disease.
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