As New Zealand grapples with policy decisions around reducing transport emissions, new research highlights the significant health and social benefits that could result from a shift to low-carbon transport systems. This research, led by Associate Professor Caroline Shaw from the University of Otago, underscores the potential for healthier, happier, and more equitable communities if bold steps are taken toward decarbonising transport.
However, recent policy developments, such as the halving of walking and cycling funding in the National Land Transport Programme and a weaker transport emissions reduction plan, threaten to stall progress on the health benefits of low-carbon transport.
The Health-Transport Nexus
Transport is a major contributor to health problems, with pollution, physical inactivity, and road accidents linked to a range of diseases such as cancer, asthma, heart disease, and depression. Transport emissions also exacerbate health inequalities, with low-income groups disproportionately affected by road injuries, while those who contribute the most to pollution through frequent car use often experience the least health impact.
The research highlights the stark contrast between two transport futures for New Zealand: one prioritises behaviour change, while the other focuses on technological solutions. Both paths would reduce emissions, but the behaviour-focused route, which encourages walking, cycling, and public transport use, would have a significantly larger positive impact on public health.
Two Pathways, Different Outcomes
The study examined two possible future transport scenarios outlined by New Zealand’s Climate Change Commission. The “further behaviour change” pathway envisions a future with a substantial shift to active transport like cycling and walking, alongside public transport expansion. In contrast, the “further technology change” pathway relies more on vehicle electrification, with a goal of a 100% electric light fleet by 2050.
Both scenarios would lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions and improvements in public health, but the behaviour change pathway offers health gains two-and-a-half times larger than the technology-based approach. This is largely due to the increased physical activity associated with more walking and cycling.
Reducing Health Inequities
The behaviour change approach also offers promising solutions for reducing health inequities. The study found that this pathway could help close the gap in healthy life expectancy between Māori and non-Māori, depending on the fairness of policy implementation. In contrast, a focus on electric vehicle infrastructure without broader behavioural changes may exacerbate inequalities, as the wealthier segments of the population are more likely to afford and benefit from electric vehicles.
The health gains from a shift to active transport are comparable to the benefits seen from tobacco reduction policies, such as a 10% tax increase or the creation of a smoke-free generation.
Walking Toward a Healthier Future
The current emissions reduction plan, which focuses on electric vehicle infrastructure and limited public transport investment, falls short of delivering the kind of transformative change required. By contrast, the first emissions reduction plan, introduced in 2022, aligned more closely with the behaviour change pathway and its potential health benefits. However, recent shifts in government policy, including expanded road construction and speed limit increases, risk negating any potential gains.
The research advocates for decarbonisation strategies that prioritise human well-being and fairness, arguing that public support for climate policies can be built by emphasising their health benefits. Decarbonising transport isn’t just about reducing emissions—it’s about creating healthier, more equitable societies for everyone.
As New Zealand faces crucial climate and transport policy decisions, the findings offer a powerful reminder of the far-reaching benefits of bold, people-focused choices. By shifting the focus to what truly matters—health and equity—New Zealand has the opportunity to lead the way in creating a low-carbon, fairer future.